Prediction Market Probability History and Odds Movement Tracker
Explore live prediction markets with historical probability charts, period highs and lows, largest observed moves, nearby news coverage, and resolution-risk checks.
Live probability-history directory
Choose a market to inspect its historical chart, period range, largest observed moves, nearby coverage, liquidity, and settlement terms.
Frequently asked questions
Direct answers about this prediction market tool and its limitations.
How do I read a prediction market probability chart?
A chart tracks the market price as an implied probability over time. A move from 42% to 57% is a rise of 15 percentage points, but it does not prove the outcome became objectively 15% more likely.
Why did prediction market odds move?
Prices can move because of new information, changing trader beliefs, large orders, thin liquidity, or market mechanics. Norynta shows coverage published near a move as context and does not claim that a headline caused it.
What are period high, low, and change?
Period high and low are the largest and smallest observed implied probabilities in the selected range. Period change compares the first and latest observations and is expressed in percentage points.
Is historical probability data an executable price?
No. Historical observations describe prior market state. A current order can execute differently because the order book, available size, spread, fees, and latency may have changed.